Handicapping the election

With less than a week to go, the State’s General Election outcome is becoming clearer.  Despite millions of dollars spent to influence voter choice, political pundits have seen the end, and it goes this way.

Patty Murray will beat Dino Rossi by about five percentage points.  Right now it looks as if Murray will triumph 53 to 47 percent.

These same pundits don’t expect to see any upsets in the current state makeup of Congress.  It looks as if incumbents will weather the election.  The only change in the state’s congressional makeup will be in the Third Congressional where Jamie Herrera is still holding on to a three point lead over Denny Heck.

Pundits also expect Democrats to hold onto both state legislative chambers although there will be some tightening.

Even the outcome of the six citizen initiatives on the ballot is becoming more clear.  Tim Eyman’s I-1053 is holding on to a slim lead.  It’s expected to pass by just a little over 51 percent.

Initiative 1082 is less clear.  Voters are really unsure what the measure does.  It’s currently polling at about 35 percent yes and 35 percent no, with the other 30 percent undecided.   Millions of dollars spent have not moved the initiative one way or another, although Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler’s opposition has moved the needle to the no side.   That’s why opponents have attacked Kreidler personally trying to blunt some of his credibility.

Initiative 1098, the state income tax, is failing by significant margins.  Some polls have support for the tax at only 35 percent with 65 percent opposed.

The two initiatives to take the state out of the liquor business are not fairing well either.  Both are currently being rejected by the voters, although 1100 is garnering more yes votes than 1105.  Opponents have done a good job of painting these measures as opening the state up to more teen drinking.

And, supporters of I-1107, to remove the sales tax on beverages and candy can smile.  They’ve convinced the voters that the sales tax increase was a mistake.   No organized opposition to the measure has helped. It looks like 1107 is passing.

No one polls on the other three ballot measures but it looks for certain that ESHJR 4220 will pass.  This gives judges more leeway to deny bail in some criminal cases.

That’s the current handicapping of the election.